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Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles Recap

MLB · June 10, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Seattle Mariners LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Seattle Mariners at 55% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +2.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.7pp  ·  closed at 1.95 (51.3%)

Small Play
Seattle Mariners
-110 on FanDuel
Model 55%
Market 52%
Edge +2.7 pts

Solid 2.7% edge at FanDuel (1.91).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
49.4%
+ Season record + form
51.4% +2.0pp
Platt rescale
48.4% -3.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
49.1% +0.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
55.0% +5.9pp

Model performance on Seattle Mariners picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
17
W - L
4 - 13
Win rate
24%
Avg CLV
+4.3pt
ROI
-28.7%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.