Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles Recap
MLB · June 10, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Seattle Mariners LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Seattle Mariners at 55% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +2.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.7pp · closed at 1.95 (51.3%)
Seattle Mariners
Model
55%
Market
52%
Edge
+2.7 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
49.4%
—
+ Season record + form
51.4%
+2.0pp
Platt rescale
48.4%
-3.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
49.1%
+0.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
55.0%
+5.9pp
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