Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap
MLB · June 10, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Toronto Blue Jays LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Toronto Blue Jays at 50% against FanDuel's implied 47% — an edge of +2.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.4pp · closed at 2.19 (45.7%)
Toronto Blue Jays
Model
50%
Market
47%
Edge
+2.9 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
50.6%
—
+ Season record + form
48.6%
-2.0pp
Platt rescale
44.0%
-4.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
42.3%
-1.7pp
Line-movement nudge
43.8%
+1.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
50.1%
+6.3pp
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