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Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap

MLB · June 10, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Toronto Blue Jays LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Toronto Blue Jays at 50% against FanDuel's implied 47% — an edge of +2.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.4pp  ·  closed at 2.19 (45.7%)

Small Play
Toronto Blue Jays
+112 on FanDuel
Model 50%
Market 47%
Edge +2.9 pts

Solid 2.9% edge at FanDuel (2.12).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
50.6%
+ Season record + form
48.6% -2.0pp
Platt rescale
44.0% -4.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
42.3% -1.7pp
Line-movement nudge
43.8% +1.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
50.1% +6.3pp

Model performance on Toronto Blue Jays picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
23
W - L
9 - 14
Win rate
39%
Avg CLV
+3.0pt
ROI
-37.2%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.