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Milwaukee Brewers @ Athletics Recap

MLB · June 09, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Milwaukee Brewers LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Milwaukee Brewers at 54% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +2.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.6pp  ·  closed at 1.94 (51.5%)

Small Play
Milwaukee Brewers
-108 on FanDuel
Model 54%
Market 52%
Edge +2.4 pts

Solid 2.4% edge at FanDuel (1.93). Elo agrees (+43 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
52.7%
+ Season record + form
55.5% +2.8pp
Calibration offset
54.1% -1.4pp
Platt rescale
50.6% -3.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
48.9% -1.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
54.2% +5.3pp

Model performance on Milwaukee Brewers picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
33
W - L
14 - 17
Win rate
45%
Avg CLV
+3.4pt
ROI
+8.7%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.