Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres Recap
MLB · June 09, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — San Diego Padres LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Diego Padres at 53% against FanDuel's implied 47% — an edge of +6.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.1pp · closed at 2.16 (46.3%)
San Diego Padres
Model
53%
Market
47%
Edge
+6.2 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
57.6%
—
Calibration offset
55.6%
-2.0pp
Platt rescale
50.9%
-4.7pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
48.3%
-2.6pp
Line-movement nudge
46.9%
-1.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
53.4%
+6.5pp
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.