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Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap

MLB · June 09, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Philadelphia Phillies LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Philadelphia Phillies at 54% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +2.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.7pp  ·  closed at 1.98 (50.5%)

Small Play
Philadelphia Phillies
-106 on FanDuel
Model 54%
Market 52%
Edge +2.6 pts

Solid 2.6% edge at FanDuel (1.94).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
49.4%
+ Season record + form
51.4% +2.0pp
Platt rescale
46.5% -4.9pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
48.2% +1.7pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
54.2% +6.0pp

Model performance on Philadelphia Phillies picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
14
W - L
3 - 11
Win rate
21%
Avg CLV
+4.2pt
ROI
-47.4%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.