Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap
MLB · June 09, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Philadelphia Phillies LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Philadelphia Phillies at 54% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +2.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.7pp · closed at 1.98 (50.5%)
Philadelphia Phillies
Model
54%
Market
52%
Edge
+2.6 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
49.4%
—
+ Season record + form
51.4%
+2.0pp
Platt rescale
46.5%
-4.9pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
48.2%
+1.7pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
54.2%
+6.0pp
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