Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap

MLB · June 09, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Philadelphia Phillies LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Philadelphia Phillies at 54% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +2.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.7pp · closed at 1.98 (50.5%)

Small Play

Philadelphia Phillies

Model 54%

Market 52%

Edge +2.6 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

49.4% —

+ Season record + form

51.4% +2.0pp

Platt rescale

46.5% -4.9pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

48.2% +1.7pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

54.2% +6.0pp

Model performance on Philadelphia Phillies picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

4 - 6

Win rate

40%

Avg CLV

+1.1pt

ROI

+3.5%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.