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New York Yankees @ Cleveland Guardians Recap

MLB · June 09, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Cleveland Guardians LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Cleveland Guardians at 52% against FanDuel's implied 50% — an edge of +2.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.9pp  ·  closed at 2.10 (47.6%)

Small Play
Cleveland Guardians
+102 on FanDuel
Model 52%
Market 50%
Edge +2.0 pts

Solid 2.0% edge at FanDuel (2.02).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
51.6%
+ Season record + form
50.0% -1.7pp
Platt rescale
44.3% -5.7pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
45.8% +1.5pp
Line-movement nudge
46.3% +0.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
51.5% +5.2pp

Model performance on Cleveland Guardians picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
43
W - L
15 - 25
Win rate
38%
Avg CLV
+4.5pt
ROI
-17.6%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.