Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers Recap
MLB · June 09, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Minnesota Twins LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 51% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +3.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.7pp · closed at 2.13 (46.9%)
Minnesota Twins
Model
51%
Market
48%
Edge
+3.0 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
50.0%
—
+ Season record + form
52.1%
+2.1pp
Platt rescale
45.0%
-7.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
50.7%
+5.7pp
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.