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Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers Recap

MLB · June 09, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Minnesota Twins LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 51% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +3.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.7pp  ·  closed at 2.13 (46.9%)

Small Play
Minnesota Twins
+110 on FanDuel
Model 51%
Market 48%
Edge +3.0 pts

Solid 3.0% edge at FanDuel (2.10).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
50.0%
+ Season record + form
52.1% +2.1pp
Platt rescale
45.0% -7.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
50.7% +5.7pp

Model performance on Minnesota Twins picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
24
W - L
8 - 16
Win rate
33%
Avg CLV
+2.9pt
ROI
-27.0%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.