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Atlanta Braves @ Chicago White Sox Recap

MLB · June 09, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Atlanta Braves LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Atlanta Braves at 62% against FanDuel's implied 60% — an edge of +2.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.5pp  ·  closed at 1.68 (59.5%)

Small Play
Atlanta Braves
-147 on FanDuel
Model 62%
Market 60%
Edge +2.5 pts

Solid 2.5% edge at FanDuel (1.68). Elo agrees (+68 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
56.3%
+ Season record + form
59.8% +3.5pp
Calibration offset
57.6% -2.2pp
Platt rescale
53.0% -4.6pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
54.4% +1.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
62.0% +7.6pp

Model performance on Atlanta Braves picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
63
W - L
26 - 33
Win rate
44%
Avg CLV
+5.0pt
ROI
-27.7%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.