Arizona Diamondbacks @ Miami Marlins Recap
MLB · June 09, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Arizona Diamondbacks LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 52% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +6.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.2pp · closed at 2.24 (44.6%)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Model
52%
Market
45%
Edge
+6.4 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
51.1%
—
+ Season record + form
53.6%
+2.5pp
Calibration offset
52.4%
-1.2pp
Platt rescale
45.4%
-7.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
51.8%
+6.4pp
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.