Lakeshore Edge Create Free Account

Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap

MLB · June 08, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Toronto Blue Jays LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Toronto Blue Jays at 45% against FanDuel's implied 40% — an edge of +5.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.0pp  ·  closed at 2.61 (38.3%)

Small Play Dog play
Toronto Blue Jays
+150 on FanDuel
Model 45%
Market 40%
Edge +5.3 pts

Solid 5.3% edge at FanDuel (2.50).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
50.6%
+ Season record + form
48.6% -2.0pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
48.1% -0.5pp
Platt rescale
43.6% -4.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
38.9% -4.7pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
45.3% +6.4pp

Model performance on Toronto Blue Jays picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
23
W - L
9 - 14
Win rate
39%
Avg CLV
+3.0pt
ROI
-37.2%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.