Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap

MLB · June 08, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Toronto Blue Jays LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Toronto Blue Jays at 45% against FanDuel's implied 40% — an edge of +5.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.0pp · closed at 2.61 (38.3%)

Small Play Dog play

Toronto Blue Jays

Model 45%

Market 40%

Edge +5.3 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

50.6% —

+ Season record + form

48.6% -2.0pp

+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)

48.1% -0.5pp

Platt rescale

43.6% -4.5pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

38.9% -4.7pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

45.3% +6.4pp

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