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Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins Recap

MLB · June 07, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Tampa Bay Rays LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Tampa Bay Rays at 44% against FanDuel's implied 40% — an edge of +3.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.2pp  ·  closed at 2.59 (38.6%)

Small Play Dog play
Tampa Bay Rays
+150 on FanDuel
Model 44%
Market 40%
Edge +3.8 pts

Solid 3.8% edge at FanDuel (2.50).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Final model probability
43.8%

Model performance on Tampa Bay Rays picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
56
W - L
24 - 32
Win rate
43%
Avg CLV
+4.1pt
ROI
-11.3%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.