Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers Recap

MLB · June 07, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Seattle Mariners LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Seattle Mariners at 52% against FanDuel's implied 49% — an edge of +2.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.8pp · closed at 2.09 (47.9%)

Small Play

Seattle Mariners

Model 52%

Market 49%

Edge +2.6 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

50.6% —

+ Season record + form

52.8% +2.2pp

Calibration offset

52.0% -0.8pp

Platt rescale

45.8% -6.2pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

46.5% +0.7pp

Line-movement nudge

45.0% -1.5pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

51.7% +6.7pp

Model performance on Seattle Mariners picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

3 - 9

Win rate

25%

Avg CLV

+3.1pt

ROI

-60.4%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.