Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers Recap
MLB · June 07, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Seattle Mariners LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Seattle Mariners at 52% against FanDuel's implied 49% — an edge of +2.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.8pp · closed at 2.09 (47.9%)
Seattle Mariners
Model
52%
Market
49%
Edge
+2.6 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
50.6%
—
+ Season record + form
52.8%
+2.2pp
Calibration offset
52.0%
-0.8pp
Platt rescale
45.8%
-6.2pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
46.5%
+0.7pp
Line-movement nudge
45.0%
-1.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
51.7%
+6.7pp
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