New York Mets @ San Diego Padres Recap

MLB · June 07, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — San Diego Padres LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Diego Padres at 61% against FanDuel's implied 53% — an edge of +7.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +11.2pp · closed at 2.02 (49.5%)

Small Play

San Diego Padres

Model 61%

Market 53%

Edge +7.8 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

62.7% —

+ Season record + form

63.7% +1.0pp

+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)

62.7% -1.0pp

Calibration offset

60.0% -2.7pp

Platt rescale

53.1% -6.9pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

60.7% +7.6pp

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