Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies Recap

MLB · June 06, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Colorado Rockies LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Colorado Rockies at 36% against FanDuel's implied 30% — an edge of +6.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +8.5pp · closed at 3.59 (27.9%)

Small Play Dog play

Colorado Rockies

Model 36%

Market 30%

Edge +6.1 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

39.9% —

+ Season record + form

35.7% -4.2pp

Calibration offset

38.5% +2.8pp

Platt rescale

35.6% -2.9pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

33.2% -2.4pp

Line-movement nudge

31.7% -1.5pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

36.4% +4.7pp

Model performance on Colorado Rockies picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

8 - 25

Win rate

24%

Avg CLV

+5.1pt

ROI

-47.4%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.