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Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies Recap

MLB · June 06, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Colorado Rockies LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Colorado Rockies at 36% against FanDuel's implied 30% — an edge of +6.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +8.5pp  ·  closed at 3.59 (27.9%)

Small Play Dog play
Colorado Rockies
+230 on FanDuel
Model 36%
Market 30%
Edge +6.1 pts

Solid 6.1% edge at FanDuel (3.30). Elo agrees (-95 gap). Best is 3.50 at BetMGM.

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
39.9%
+ Season record + form
35.7% -4.2pp
Calibration offset
38.5% +2.8pp
Platt rescale
35.6% -2.9pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
33.2% -2.4pp
Line-movement nudge
31.7% -1.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
36.4% +4.7pp

Model performance on Colorado Rockies picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
43
W - L
21 - 22
Win rate
49%
Avg CLV
+5.1pt
ROI
+17.5%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.