Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees Recap
MLB · June 06, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
New York Yankees — VOID.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked New York Yankees at 61% against FanDuel's implied 53% — an edge of +7.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
New York Yankees
Model
61%
Market
53%
Edge
+7.8 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
61.9%
—
+ Season record + form
62.8%
+0.9pp
Calibration offset
59.9%
-2.9pp
Platt rescale
51.9%
-8.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
53.5%
+1.6pp
Line-movement nudge
53.2%
-0.3pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
60.7%
+7.5pp
Model performance on New York Yankees picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
Picks
23
W - L
15 - 7
Win rate
68%
Avg CLV
+5.3pt
ROI
+44.2%
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.