Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers Recap
MLB · June 05, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Los Angeles Angels LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 41% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +2.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.3pp · closed at 2.75 (36.4%)
Los Angeles Angels
Model
41%
Market
38%
Edge
+2.8 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
31.4%
—
+ Season record + form
29.0%
-2.4pp
Calibration offset
33.6%
+4.6pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
34.5%
+0.9pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
40.7%
+6.2pp
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