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Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins Recap

MLB · June 06, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Kansas City Royals LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Kansas City Royals at 47% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +2.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.0pp  ·  closed at 2.33 (42.9%)

Small Play Dog play
Kansas City Royals
+124 on FanDuel
Model 47%
Market 45%
Edge +2.7 pts

Solid 2.7% edge at FanDuel (2.24).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
43.1%
Calibration offset
44.8% +1.7pp
Platt rescale
42.1% -2.7pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
40.8% -1.3pp
Line-movement nudge
41.1% +0.3pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.3% +6.2pp

Model performance on Kansas City Royals picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
24
W - L
13 - 11
Win rate
54%
Avg CLV
+4.7pt
ROI
+9.1%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.