Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins Recap
MLB · June 06, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Kansas City Royals LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Kansas City Royals at 47% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +2.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.0pp · closed at 2.33 (42.9%)
Kansas City Royals
Model
47%
Market
45%
Edge
+2.7 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
43.1%
—
Calibration offset
44.8%
+1.7pp
Platt rescale
42.1%
-2.7pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
40.8%
-1.3pp
Line-movement nudge
41.1%
+0.3pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.3%
+6.2pp
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