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Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies Recap

MLB · June 05, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Chicago White Sox LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 45% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +6.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.4pp  ·  closed at 2.65 (37.7%)

Small Play Dog play
Chicago White Sox
+160 on FanDuel
Model 45%
Market 38%
Edge +6.7 pts

Solid 6.7% edge at FanDuel (2.60).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
47.1%
+ Season record + form
48.5% +1.4pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
47.9% -0.6pp
Platt rescale
44.0% -3.9pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
38.2% -5.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
45.1% +6.9pp

Model performance on Chicago White Sox picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
33
W - L
20 - 13
Win rate
61%
Avg CLV
+4.6pt
ROI
+30.4%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.