Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies Recap

MLB · June 05, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Chicago White Sox LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 45% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +6.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.4pp · closed at 2.65 (37.7%)

Small Play Dog play

Chicago White Sox

Model 45%

Market 38%

Edge +6.7 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

47.1% —

+ Season record + form

48.5% +1.4pp

+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)

47.9% -0.6pp

Platt rescale

44.0% -3.9pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

38.2% -5.8pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

45.1% +6.9pp

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