Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap
MLB · June 05, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Baltimore Orioles WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Baltimore Orioles at 47% against FanDuel's implied 44% — an edge of +3.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.3pp · closed at 2.27 (44.0%)
Baltimore Orioles
Model
47%
Market
44%
Edge
+3.1 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
44.8%
—
+ Season record + form
45.6%
+0.8pp
Calibration offset
46.5%
+0.9pp
Platt rescale
41.0%
-5.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.4%
+6.4pp
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