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Athletics @ Chicago Cubs Recap

MLB · June 04, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Athletics LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Athletics at 45% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +5.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +1.9pp  ·  closed at 2.31 (43.3%)

Small Play Dog play
Athletics
+154 on FanDuel
Model 45%
Market 39%
Edge +5.9 pts

Solid 5.9% edge at FanDuel (2.54).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
42.6%
Calibration offset
44.1% +1.5pp
Platt rescale
40.6% -3.5pp
Line-movement nudge
39.1% -1.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
45.2% +6.1pp

Model performance on Athletics picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
35
W - L
14 - 21
Win rate
40%
Avg CLV
+3.6pt
ROI
-13.2%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.