Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros Recap

MLB · June 03, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Houston Astros WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Astros at 60% against FanDuel's implied 58% — an edge of +2.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.6pp · closed at 1.74 (57.5%)

Small Play

Houston Astros

Model 60%

Market 58%

Edge +2.3 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Final model probability

60.1% —

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