Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins Recap
MLB · June 04, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Minnesota Twins LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 53% against FanDuel's implied 51% — an edge of +2.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.2pp · closed at 2.03 (49.3%)
Minnesota Twins
Model
53%
Market
51%
Edge
+2.9 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
56.9%
—
Calibration offset
54.9%
-2.0pp
Platt rescale
48.6%
-6.3pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
48.0%
-0.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
53.5%
+5.5pp
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