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Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees Recap

MLB · June 04, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Cleveland Guardians LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Cleveland Guardians at 49% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +7.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +9.0pp  ·  closed at 2.48 (40.3%)

Small Play Dog play
Cleveland Guardians
+136 on FanDuel
Model 49%
Market 42%
Edge +7.0 pts

Solid 7.0% edge at FanDuel (2.36).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
44.7%
+ Season record + form
45.5% +0.8pp
Calibration offset
46.1% +0.6pp
Platt rescale
42.8% -3.3pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
43.7% +0.9pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
49.4% +5.7pp

Model performance on Cleveland Guardians picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
43
W - L
15 - 25
Win rate
38%
Avg CLV
+4.5pt
ROI
-17.6%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.