Athletics @ Chicago Cubs Recap
MLB · June 03, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Chicago Cubs LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago Cubs at 56% against FanDuel's implied 54% — an edge of +2.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -0.4pp · closed at 1.77 (56.5%)
Chicago Cubs
Model
56%
Market
54%
Edge
+2.1 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
57.4%
—
Calibration offset
55.7%
-1.7pp
Platt rescale
52.5%
-3.2pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
50.2%
-2.3pp
Line-movement nudge
50.5%
+0.3pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
56.1%
+5.6pp
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