Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins Recap
MLB · June 03, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Chicago White Sox WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 47% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +4.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.4pp · closed at 2.32 (43.1%)
Chicago White Sox
Model
47%
Market
43%
Edge
+4.0 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
49.4%
—
+ Season record + form
51.4%
+2.0pp
Platt rescale
46.1%
-5.3pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
40.9%
-5.2pp
Line-movement nudge
41.2%
+0.3pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.5%
+6.3pp
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