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Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins Recap

MLB · June 03, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Chicago White Sox WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 47% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +4.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.4pp  ·  closed at 2.32 (43.1%)

Small Play Dog play
Chicago White Sox
+130 on FanDuel
Model 47%
Market 43%
Edge +4.0 pts

Solid 4.0% edge at FanDuel (2.30).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
49.4%
+ Season record + form
51.4% +2.0pp
Platt rescale
46.1% -5.3pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
40.9% -5.2pp
Line-movement nudge
41.2% +0.3pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.5% +6.3pp

Model performance on Chicago White Sox picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
28
W - L
20 - 8
Win rate
71%
Avg CLV
+3.3pt
ROI
+50.5%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.