Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox Recap
MLB · June 03, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Baltimore Orioles LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Baltimore Orioles at 47% against FanDuel's implied 44% — an edge of +3.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.0pp · closed at 2.33 (42.9%)
Baltimore Orioles
Model
47%
Market
44%
Edge
+3.1 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
44.8%
—
+ Season record + form
45.6%
+0.8pp
Calibration offset
46.4%
+0.8pp
Platt rescale
39.5%
-6.9pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
40.3%
+0.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
46.9%
+6.6pp
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