Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox Recap
MLB · June 02, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Boston Red Sox LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Boston Red Sox at 41% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +2.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.2pp · closed at 2.58 (38.8%)
Boston Red Sox
+158 on FanDuel
Model
41%
Market
39%
Edge
+2.2 pts
Solid 2.2% edge at FanDuel (2.58).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Final model probability
40.9%
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