Kansas City Royals @ Cincinnati Reds Recap
MLB · June 01, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Kansas City Royals WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Kansas City Royals at 45% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +6.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -1.4pp · closed at 2.15 (46.5%)
Kansas City Royals
Model
45%
Market
39%
Edge
+6.4 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
39.8%
—
+ Season record + form
39.2%
-0.6pp
Calibration offset
41.4%
+2.2pp
Platt rescale
37.1%
-4.3pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
38.2%
+1.1pp
Line-movement nudge
36.7%
-1.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
45.1%
+8.4pp
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