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Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins Recap

MLB · June 01, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Chicago White Sox LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 49% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +3.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.3pp  ·  closed at 2.25 (44.4%)

Small Play Dog play
Chicago White Sox
+122 on FanDuel
Model 49%
Market 45%
Edge +3.7 pts

Solid 3.7% edge at FanDuel (2.22).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
49.4%
+ Season record + form
51.4% +2.0pp
Platt rescale
46.0% -5.4pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
40.5% -5.5pp
Line-movement nudge
42.0% +1.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
48.8% +6.8pp

Model performance on Chicago White Sox picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
22
W - L
17 - 5
Win rate
77%
Avg CLV
+2.7pt
ROI
+56.4%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.