Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins Recap
MLB · June 01, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Chicago White Sox LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 49% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +3.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.3pp · closed at 2.25 (44.4%)
Chicago White Sox
Model
49%
Market
45%
Edge
+3.7 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
49.4%
—
+ Season record + form
51.4%
+2.0pp
Platt rescale
46.0%
-5.4pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
40.5%
-5.5pp
Line-movement nudge
42.0%
+1.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
48.8%
+6.8pp
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