Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles Recap
MLB · May 31, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Toronto Blue Jays LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Toronto Blue Jays at 50% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +2.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.0pp · closed at 2.22 (45.1%)
Toronto Blue Jays
+108 on FanDuel
Model
50%
Market
48%
Edge
+2.0 pts
Solid 2.0% edge at FanDuel (2.08).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
48.3%
—
+ Season record + form
49.9%
+1.6pp
Platt rescale
48.1%
-1.8pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
45.4%
-2.7pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
50.1%
+4.7pp
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