Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros Recap
MLB · May 31, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Houston Astros LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Astros at 40% against FanDuel's implied 37% — an edge of +2.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.0pp · closed at 2.70 (37.0%)
Houston Astros
Model
40%
Market
37%
Edge
+2.7 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
40.6%
—
+ Season record + form
36.5%
-4.1pp
Calibration offset
38.7%
+2.2pp
Platt rescale
38.5%
-0.2pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
35.8%
-2.7pp
Line-movement nudge
35.2%
-0.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
40.0%
+4.8pp
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