Lakeshore Edge Create Free Account

Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros Recap

MLB · May 31, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Houston Astros LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Astros at 40% against FanDuel's implied 37% — an edge of +2.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.0pp  ·  closed at 2.70 (37.0%)

Small Play Dog play
Houston Astros
+168 on FanDuel
Model 40%
Market 37%
Edge +2.7 pts

Solid 2.7% edge at FanDuel (2.68). Elo agrees (-90 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
40.6%
+ Season record + form
36.5% -4.1pp
Calibration offset
38.7% +2.2pp
Platt rescale
38.5% -0.2pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
35.8% -2.7pp
Line-movement nudge
35.2% -0.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
40.0% +4.8pp

Model performance on Houston Astros picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
13
W - L
4 - 8
Win rate
33%
Avg CLV
+1.0pt
ROI
-25.1%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.