Minnesota Twins @ Pittsburgh Pirates Recap
MLB · May 30, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Minnesota Twins LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 48% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +2.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.8pp · closed at 2.28 (43.9%)
Minnesota Twins
Model
48%
Market
45%
Edge
+2.2 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
43.7%
—
Calibration offset
45.9%
+2.2pp
Platt rescale
44.5%
-1.4pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
43.4%
-1.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.7%
+4.3pp
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