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Miami Marlins @ New York Mets Recap

MLB · May 29, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Miami Marlins LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Miami Marlins at 53% against FanDuel's implied 51% — an edge of +2.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.2pp  ·  closed at 1.98 (50.5%)

Small Play
Miami Marlins
-102 on FanDuel
Model 53%
Market 51%
Edge +2.2 pts

Solid 2.2% edge at FanDuel (1.98).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
47.3%
+ Season record + form
48.6% +1.3pp
Platt rescale
46.9% -1.7pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
52.7% +5.8pp

Model performance on Miami Marlins picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
27
W - L
11 - 16
Win rate
41%
Avg CLV
+1.8pt
ROI
-39.0%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.