Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers Recap
MLB · May 28, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Houston Astros WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Astros at 48% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +2.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.7pp · closed at 2.28 (43.9%)
Houston Astros
Model
48%
Market
45%
Edge
+2.1 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
41.0%
—
Calibration offset
43.8%
+2.8pp
Platt rescale
40.7%
-3.1pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
42.2%
+1.5pp
Line-movement nudge
41.6%
-0.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.6%
+6.0pp
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