Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox Recap

MLB · May 25, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Chicago White Sox WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 49% against FanDuel's implied 46% — an edge of +3.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -2.5pp · closed at 1.93 (51.8%)

Small Play Dog play

Chicago White Sox

Model 49%

Market 46%

Edge +3.0 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

56.3% —

Calibration offset

54.2% -2.1pp

Platt rescale

52.5% -1.7pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

48.5% -4.0pp

Line-movement nudge

47.0% -1.5pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

49.3% +2.3pp

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.