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Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants Recap

MLB · May 25, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Arizona Diamondbacks WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 50% against FanDuel's implied 44% — an edge of +5.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.6pp  ·  closed at 2.13 (46.9%)

Small Play
Arizona Diamondbacks
Model 50%
Market 44%
Edge +5.3 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
53.4%
+ Season record + form
56.4% +3.0pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
55.8% -0.6pp
Calibration offset
54.4% -1.3pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
48.6% -5.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
49.6% +1.0pp

Model performance on Arizona Diamondbacks picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
30
W - L
16 - 14
Win rate
53%
Avg CLV
+3.8pt
ROI
-5.0%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.