Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants Recap
MLB · May 25, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Arizona Diamondbacks WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 50% against FanDuel's implied 44% — an edge of +5.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.6pp · closed at 2.13 (46.9%)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Model
50%
Market
44%
Edge
+5.3 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
53.4%
—
+ Season record + form
56.4%
+3.0pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
55.8%
-0.6pp
Calibration offset
54.4%
-1.3pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
48.6%
-5.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
49.6%
+1.0pp
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