Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals Recap
MLB · May 24, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Kansas City Royals WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Kansas City Royals at 48% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +5.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -0.4pp · closed at 2.07 (48.3%)
Kansas City Royals
Model
48%
Market
42%
Edge
+5.9 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
49.4%
—
+ Season record + form
47.2%
-2.2pp
Calibration offset
47.5%
+0.3pp
Platt rescale
46.9%
-0.6pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
45.4%
-1.5pp
Line-movement nudge
46.7%
+1.3pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.9%
+1.2pp
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