Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals Recap

MLB · May 24, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Kansas City Royals WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Kansas City Royals at 48% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +5.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -0.4pp · closed at 2.07 (48.3%)

Small Play Dog play

Kansas City Royals

Model 48%

Market 42%

Edge +5.9 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

49.4% —

+ Season record + form

47.2% -2.2pp

Calibration offset

47.5% +0.3pp

Platt rescale

46.9% -0.6pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

45.4% -1.5pp

Line-movement nudge

46.7% +1.3pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

47.9% +1.2pp

Model performance on Kansas City Royals picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

13 - 11

Win rate

54%

Avg CLV

+4.7pt

ROI

+9.1%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.