Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals Recap
MLB · May 24, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Kansas City Royals WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Kansas City Royals at 48% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +5.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -0.4pp · closed at 2.07 (48.3%)
Kansas City Royals
138 on FanDuel
Model
48%
Market
42%
Edge
+5.9 pts
Solid 5.9% edge at FanDuel (2.38).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
49.4%
—
+ Season record + form
47.2%
-2.3pp
Calibration offset
47.5%
+0.6pp
Platt rescale
46.9%
+1.2pp
Final model probability
46.9%
—
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