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Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox Recap

MLB · May 24, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Minnesota Twins WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 50% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +8.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +10.3pp  ·  closed at 2.52 (39.7%)

Small Play
Minnesota Twins
138 on FanDuel
Model 50%
Market 42%
Edge +8.0 pts

Solid 8.0% edge at FanDuel (2.38).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
47.1%
+ Season record + form
48.5% +1.4pp
Final model probability
46.1% -2.4pp

Model performance on Minnesota Twins picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
11
W - L
6 - 5
Win rate
55%
Avg CLV
+5.2pt
ROI
+19.9%

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