Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox Recap
MLB · May 24, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Minnesota Twins WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 50% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +8.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +10.3pp · closed at 2.52 (39.7%)
Minnesota Twins
Model
50%
Market
42%
Edge
+8.0 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
47.1%
—
+ Season record + form
48.5%
+1.4pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
47.0%
-1.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
50.0%
+3.0pp
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