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Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels Recap

MLB · May 23, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Los Angeles Angels WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 47% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +4.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Small Play
Los Angeles Angels
136 on FanDuel
Model 47%
Market 42%
Edge +4.4 pts

Solid 4.4% edge at FanDuel (2.36). Elo agrees (-60 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
44.8%
+ Season record + form
41.5% -3.3pp
Calibration offset
43.6% +2.0pp
Platt rescale
40.6% +2.1pp
Final model probability
40.6% -0.1pp

Model performance on Los Angeles Angels picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
13
W - L
6 - 7
Win rate
46%
Avg CLV
+4.2pt
ROI
-37.3%

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