Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels Recap

MLB · May 22, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Los Angeles Angels WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 47% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +4.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Small Play Dog play

Los Angeles Angels

Model 47%

Market 42%

Edge +4.4 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

44.8% —

+ Season record + form

41.5% -3.2pp

Calibration offset

43.6% +2.1pp

Platt rescale

40.6% -3.0pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

44.0% +3.4pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

46.7% +2.7pp

Model performance on Los Angeles Angels picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

10 - 15

Win rate

40%

Avg CLV

+5.3pt

ROI

-32.4%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.