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St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds Recap

MLB · May 23, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — St. Louis Cardinals WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked St. Louis Cardinals at 55% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +2.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.1pp  ·  closed at 1.96 (51.0%)

Small Play
St. Louis Cardinals
-110 on FanDuel
Model 55%
Market 52%
Edge +2.6 pts

Solid 2.6% edge at FanDuel (1.91).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
50.1%
+ Season record + form
52.3% +2.2pp
+ Factors (pitcher / injury / weather / trends)
53.0% +0.7pp
Calibration offset
52.4% -0.6pp
Platt rescale
50.8% -2.3pp
Final model probability
50.8%

Model performance on St. Louis Cardinals picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
25
W - L
14 - 5
Win rate
74%
Avg CLV
+2.0pt
ROI
+19.1%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.