St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds Recap

MLB · May 23, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — St. Louis Cardinals WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked St. Louis Cardinals at 55% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +2.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.1pp · closed at 1.96 (51.0%)

Small Play

St. Louis Cardinals

Model 55%

Market 52%

Edge +2.6 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

50.1% —

+ Season record + form

52.3% +2.2pp

+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)

53.0% +0.7pp

Calibration offset

52.4% -0.6pp

Platt rescale

50.8% -1.6pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

52.2% +1.4pp

Line-movement nudge

51.9% -0.3pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

54.9% +3.0pp

Final model probability

54.9% +0.1pp

Model performance on St. Louis Cardinals picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

17 - 25

Win rate

40%

Avg CLV

+4.6pt

ROI

-25.7%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.