Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks Recap
MLB · May 22, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Colorado Rockies WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Colorado Rockies at 46% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +7.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Colorado Rockies
Model
46%
Market
38%
Edge
+7.2 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
38.7%
—
+ Season record + form
37.8%
-0.9pp
Calibration offset
40.9%
+3.1pp
Platt rescale
41.2%
+0.3pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
42.0%
+0.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
45.7%
+3.7pp
Model performance on Colorado Rockies picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
Picks
43
W - L
21 - 22
Win rate
49%
Avg CLV
+5.1pt
ROI
+17.5%
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.