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Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

MLB · May 23, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Colorado Rockies WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Colorado Rockies at 46% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +7.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Small Play
Colorado Rockies
160 on FanDuel
Model 46%
Market 38%
Edge +7.2 pts

Solid 7.2% edge at FanDuel (2.60). Elo agrees (-56 gap). Best is 2.74 at Bovada.

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
38.7%
+ Season record + form
37.8% -0.9pp
Calibration offset
40.9% +3.2pp
Platt rescale
41.2% +2.5pp
Final model probability
41.2%

Model performance on Colorado Rockies picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
24
W - L
9 - 14
Win rate
39%
Avg CLV
+6.3pt
ROI
-32.6%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.