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Athletics @ San Diego Padres Recap

MLB · May 23, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Athletics LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Athletics at 49% against FanDuel's implied 46% — an edge of +2.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Small Play
Athletics
116 on FanDuel
Model 49%
Market 46%
Edge +2.5 pts

Solid 2.5% edge at FanDuel (2.16). Elo agrees (-33 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
41.9%
Calibration offset
44.1% +2.1pp
Platt rescale
43.6% +0.8pp
Final model probability
43.6%

Model performance on Athletics picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
27
W - L
16 - 11
Win rate
59%
Avg CLV
+4.2pt
ROI
+4.7%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.