Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves Recap
MLB · May 22, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Washington Nationals LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Washington Nationals at 38% against FanDuel's implied 36% — an edge of +2.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Washington Nationals
Model
38%
Market
36%
Edge
+2.6 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
36.5%
—
+ Season record + form
35.2%
-1.3pp
Calibration offset
39.0%
+3.8pp
Platt rescale
39.6%
+0.6pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
36.2%
-3.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
38.3%
+2.1pp
Model performance on Washington Nationals picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
Picks
39
W - L
17 - 22
Win rate
44%
Avg CLV
+3.4pt
ROI
-17.4%
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.