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Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves Recap

MLB · May 22, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Washington Nationals LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Washington Nationals at 38% against FanDuel's implied 36% — an edge of +2.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Small Play
Washington Nationals
180 on FanDuel
Model 38%
Market 36%
Edge +2.6 pts

Solid 2.6% edge at FanDuel (2.80). Elo agrees (-72 gap). Best is 2.95 at BetMGM.

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
36.5%
+ Season record + form
35.2% -1.3pp
Calibration offset
39.0% +3.5pp
Platt rescale
39.6% +2.6pp
Final model probability
39.6%

Model performance on Washington Nationals picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
21
W - L
16 - 5
Win rate
76%
Avg CLV
+4.4pt
ROI
+50.5%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.