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Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees Recap

MLB · May 22, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Tampa Bay Rays WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Tampa Bay Rays at 50% against FanDuel's implied 46% — an edge of +4.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Small Play
Tampa Bay Rays
118 on FanDuel
Model 50%
Market 46%
Edge +4.2 pts

Solid 4.2% edge at FanDuel (2.18). Elo agrees (+35 gap). Best is 2.30 at LowVig.ag.

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
51.6%
+ Season record + form
54.1% +2.5pp
+ Factors (pitcher / injury / weather / trends)
53.5% -0.5pp
Calibration offset
52.7% -0.9pp
Platt rescale
50.2% -3.1pp
Final model probability
50.2%

Model performance on Tampa Bay Rays picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
27
W - L
16 - 8
Win rate
67%
Avg CLV
+5.3pt
ROI
+21.4%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.