Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees Recap
MLB · May 22, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Tampa Bay Rays WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Tampa Bay Rays at 50% against FanDuel's implied 46% — an edge of +4.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Tampa Bay Rays
Model
50%
Market
46%
Edge
+4.2 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
51.6%
—
+ Season record + form
54.1%
+2.5pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
53.5%
-0.6pp
Calibration offset
52.7%
-0.8pp
Platt rescale
50.2%
-2.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
47.1%
-3.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
50.1%
+3.0pp
Model performance on Tampa Bay Rays picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
Picks
56
W - L
24 - 32
Win rate
43%
Avg CLV
+4.1pt
ROI
-11.3%
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