Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap
MLB · May 22, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Pittsburgh Pirates LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Pittsburgh Pirates at 53% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +7.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Model
53%
Market
45%
Edge
+7.9 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
50.0%
—
+ Season record + form
52.1%
+2.1pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
51.5%
-0.6pp
Platt rescale
47.8%
-3.7pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
49.1%
+1.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
52.6%
+3.5pp
Model performance on Pittsburgh Pirates picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
Picks
22
W - L
14 - 8
Win rate
64%
Avg CLV
+4.3pt
ROI
+23.1%
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.