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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap

MLB · May 22, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Pittsburgh Pirates LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Pittsburgh Pirates at 53% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +7.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Small Play
Pittsburgh Pirates
124 on FanDuel
Model 53%
Market 45%
Edge +7.9 pts

Solid 7.9% edge at FanDuel (2.24). Best is 2.44 at BetOnline.ag.

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
50.0%
+ Season record + form
52.1% +2.1pp
+ Factors (pitcher / injury / weather / trends)
51.5% -0.6pp
Platt rescale
47.8% -1.8pp
Final model probability
47.8%

Model performance on Pittsburgh Pirates picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
15
W - L
6 - 9
Win rate
40%
Avg CLV
+6.5pt
ROI
-52.9%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.