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Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox Recap

MLB · May 22, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Minnesota Twins WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 50% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +4.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Small Play
Minnesota Twins
+122 on FanDuel
Model 50%
Market 45%
Edge +4.9 pts

Solid 4.9% edge at FanDuel (2.22). Best is 2.36 at BetOnline.ag.

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
47.1%
+ Season record + form
48.5% +1.4pp
Platt rescale
45.6% -2.9pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
46.6% +1.0pp
Line-movement nudge
46.0% -0.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
49.9% +3.9pp

Model performance on Minnesota Twins picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
22
W - L
7 - 15
Win rate
32%
Avg CLV
+2.8pt
ROI
-8.7%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.