Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox Recap
MLB · May 22, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Minnesota Twins WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 50% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +4.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Minnesota Twins
Model
50%
Market
45%
Edge
+4.9 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
47.1%
—
+ Season record + form
48.5%
+1.4pp
Platt rescale
45.6%
-2.9pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
46.6%
+1.0pp
Line-movement nudge
46.0%
-0.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
49.9%
+3.9pp
Model performance on Minnesota Twins picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
Picks
24
W - L
8 - 16
Win rate
33%
Avg CLV
+2.9pt
ROI
-27.0%
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