Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals Recap

MLB · May 21, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — St. Louis Cardinals LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked St. Louis Cardinals at 70% against FanDuel's implied 64% — an edge of +6.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Small Play

St. Louis Cardinals

Model 70%

Market 64%

Edge +6.3 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Final model probability

70.0% —

Model performance on St. Louis Cardinals picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

17 - 25

Win rate

40%

Avg CLV

+4.6pt

ROI

-25.7%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.