Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies Recap

MLB · May 20, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Cincinnati Reds WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Cincinnati Reds at 48% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +3.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Small Play Dog play

Cincinnati Reds

Model 48%

Market 45%

Edge +3.3 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

51.0% —

+ Season record + form

53.3% +2.3pp

Calibration offset

52.2% -1.1pp

Platt rescale

49.8% -2.4pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

46.2% -3.6pp

Line-movement nudge

45.4% -0.8pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

47.9% +2.5pp

Model performance on Cincinnati Reds picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

12 - 13

Win rate

48%

Avg CLV

+3.9pt

ROI

-3.2%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.