San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

MLB · May 18, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — San Francisco Giants LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Francisco Giants at 70% against FanDuel's implied 64% — an edge of +5.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Small Play

San Francisco Giants

Model 70%

Market 64%

Edge +5.9 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

42.9% —

Calibration offset

45.8% +2.9pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

50.9% +5.1pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

70.0% +19.1pp

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