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San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

MLB · May 19, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — San Francisco Giants LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Francisco Giants at 70% against FanDuel's implied 64% — an edge of +5.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Small Play
San Francisco Giants
-179 on FanDuel
Model 70%
Market 64%
Edge +5.9 pts

Solid 5.9% edge at FanDuel (1.56).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
42.9%
Calibration offset
45.8% +2.7pp
Final model probability
48.2% +2.4pp

Model performance on San Francisco Giants picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
13
W - L
1 - 9
Win rate
10%
Avg CLV
+9.3pt
ROI
-75.8%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.