Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins Recap
MLB · May 19, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Houston Astros WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Astros at 46% against FanDuel's implied 44% — an edge of +2.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Houston Astros
Model
46%
Market
44%
Edge
+2.5 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
46.6%
—
+ Season record + form
47.8%
+1.2pp
Calibration offset
48.4%
+0.6pp
Platt rescale
47.3%
-1.1pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
45.4%
-1.9pp
Line-movement nudge
46.0%
+0.6pp
Final model probability
46.4%
+0.4pp
Model performance on Houston Astros picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
Picks
10
W - L
7 - 3
Win rate
70%
Avg CLV
+1.6pt
ROI
+49.4%
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.