Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins Recap
MLB · May 19, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Houston Astros WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Astros at 46% against FanDuel's implied 44% — an edge of +2.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Houston Astros
128 on FanDuel
Model
46%
Market
44%
Edge
+2.5 pts
Solid 2.5% edge at FanDuel (2.28).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
46.6%
—
+ Season record + form
47.8%
+1.2pp
Calibration offset
48.4%
+1.0pp
Platt rescale
47.3%
+1.5pp
Final model probability
47.3%
+0.1pp
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